Mexico's War on Cartels Reaches a Turning Point With No End in Sight

A Kingpin Falls, But the Violence Doesn't

On February 22, 2026, Mexican special forces carried out one of the most consequential raids in the country's two-decade drug war. Mexican military and law enforcement agents undertook an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, to capture or kill Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes — the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the most wanted man in both Mexico and the United States. Oseguera was seriously wounded during the military operation and died while being transported to Mexico City. What followed was not a moment of calm. It was chaos.

The Mexican military killed El Mencho in a raid in Tapalpa, Jalisco — and what followed was not a quiet surrender, but a furious wave of retaliation that lit up roads, airports, and cities across at least 20 Mexican states. Criminal actors hijacked and burned vehicles, attacked gas stations and small businesses, deployed tire spikes on roadways, and engaged security forces in multiple armed confrontations. At least 73 people died in the operation and its violent aftermath across 20 states, and Mexico deployed around 9,500 troops nationwide to contain retaliatory cartel attacks.

The Scope of a Crisis Decades in the Making

Mexico faces a crisis of kidnappings, disappearances, and other criminal violence that has left over thirty thousand people dead each year since 2018. Mexico has seen more than 463,000 homicides since 2006, when the government of President Felipe Calderón first declared war on the cartels. Despite billions of dollars in U.S. security assistance and decades of military operations, the cartels have only grown more powerful and more brazen.

Gangs and drug cartels largely perpetrate this violence, but the state has also committed human rights violations in its war against these groups. Civilians bear the most significant impact, which drives migrants to the U.S. border. Drugs from the cartels also flow over the border, fueling a drug overdose epidemic in the United States. The killing of El Mencho — the most significant elimination of a cartel leader since Pablo Escobar — offered a major symbolic victory, but experts caution that symbols don't dismantle criminal networks.

A Power Vacuum and a Fragile Future

Attention now turns to the looming succession battle inside the CJNG. Analysts say El Mencho's stepson, Juan Carlos González Valencia, who oversees the cartel's paramilitary wing, is viewed as a likely successor. But if he fails to consolidate control, multiple regional commanders could splinter off, potentially triggering internal warfare and record levels of violence. History offers little comfort here — the arrest and extradition of Sinaloa Cartel boss Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán did nothing to reduce overall cartel violence nationwide.

Armed groups in Mexico are employing weaponized drones to target security forces, with drone attacks by cartels jumping 567 percent from 2023 to 2025. Meanwhile, U.S.–Mexico security tensions are reaching potentially unprecedented levels amid repeated threats from President Trump to unilaterally strike Mexican drug cartels. His administration declared an emergency at the southern U.S. border, designated several Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and reportedly expanded its use of a covert drone program to find and identify fentanyl labs in Mexico.

Cooperation or Confrontation — The Choice Ahead

While the death of El Mencho is a significant tactical success, analysts argue it does not dismantle the cartel's power — and CJNG demonstrated operational resilience by responding with coordinated violence across multiple states. For Mexico, lasting security requires territorial control and anti-corruption reforms, rather than decapitation strikes alone. The question isn't whether El Mencho's death matters — it does. The question is whether either government can convert a battlefield win into something that actually changes life on the ground.

Strong intelligence cooperation between Mexico and the United States reduces pressure for unilateral U.S. military action, and restoring internal security will require sustained cooperation — with governance reform determining whether Mexico converts tactical gains into strategic progress. For ordinary Mexicans, that distinction is everything. Five months after the raid that shook 20 states, the cartels remain deeply embedded in Mexican society, and the path forward remains as dangerous as it is uncertain.