Finn's Take· TL;DRThe biggest names in tech delivered a tale of two markets this week as Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms kicked off earnings season with mixed results, as Tesla and Microsoft fell short of market expectations in the growth of their core businesses, while Meta Platforms exceeded analysts' estimates across all metrics . The divergent performance underscores how investors are increasingly scrutinizing each company's individual prospects rather than treating Big Tech as a monolithic growth engine.
Tesla's shares jumped more than 4% after an initial drop, Microsoft's shares fell by 4.6%, and Meta climbed 2.3% in after-hours trading . The contrasting reactions highlight how market sentiment has evolved, with investors looking beyond headline numbers to focus on future growth potential and strategic positioning in key areas like artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.
The fourth quarter earnings season kicks into high gear with Big Tech results from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple headlining the earnings calendar, as 13% of S&P 500 companies have reported fourth quarter results, with Wall Street analysts estimating an 8.2% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter .
Tesla missed market expectations for both earnings per share and revenue in the fourth quarter, with its shares initially dipping before sharply rebounding as investors looked beyond the weak earnings report and focused instead on Tesla's growth prospects in 2025 and beyond . The electric vehicle maker's core automotive business showed concerning signs, with overall revenue rising by just 2% year on year, down from 8% growth in the previous quarter, while total automotive sales fell by 8% year on year .
However, Tesla's energy storage division provided a bright spot, with revenue growing by 113%, achieving record deployments and a record gross profit for the quarter, with the company expecting its energy business to expand by at least 50% this year . CEO Elon Musk's emphasis on autonomous driving technology also resonated with investors, as the highly anticipated Robotaxi product Cybercab is scheduled for volume production in 2026, with Tesla stating "We expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025" .
Microsoft delivered solid revenue growth but disappointed investors with its cloud computing outlook. Microsoft delivered a solid second-quarter earnings beat, with revenue reaching $69.63 billion versus the $68.78 billion expected, however, its outlook for Azure cloud growth fell short, triggering a 5% drop in the stock after hours . The company's massive AI investments came under increased scrutiny, with investors concerned about Microsoft's rising capital expenditures, which hit $15.8 billion in the quarter and are expected to remain elevated throughout 2025 .
The issue with Microsoft is the capex overhang, with the market concerned about the company's heavy investments in AI infrastructure without a tangible monetization plan . Despite these concerns, analysts remain optimistic about Microsoft's long-term prospects, with Microsoft being the clear favorite among analysts, with analysts seeing about 34% upside from current levels .
The earnings season arrives at a critical juncture for the so-called "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks, which have driven much of the market's gains in recent years. For the Mag 7 group, total earnings are expected to increase by +12.6% on +9.5% higher revenues in 2025, while excluding the Mag 7 contribution, total earnings for the remaining S&P 500 companies are expected to grow +8.7% in 2025 .
The mixed results suggest that the era of uniform Big Tech outperformance may be ending, with investors becoming more discerning about which companies can justify their premium valuations. With AI spending soaring across major tech firms, traders are weighing the sustainability of these investments against profitability concerns, while Microsoft's and Tesla's forecasts introduced uncertainty, Meta's strong ad revenue reassured some investors . As Apple prepares to report its results, investors will be watching closely to see whether the iPhone maker can break the pattern of mixed results that has characterized this earnings cycle.