30 Million Votes Already Cast as Midterm Early Voting Surges Past 2022 Pace

A Record-Setting Start to Election Season

More than 30 million Americans had already cast ballots ahead of the 2026 midterm elections as of October 26, offering an early look at voter participation in races that will determine control of Congress. With Election Day — November 3 — now just one week away, the numbers are turning heads. This pace is several days ahead of where things stood at the same point in 2022. Experts are already raising the possibility that this cycle could punch well above its weight class.

One analyst said turnout is likely to exceed an average midterm election, coming closer to "presidential-level election turnout." That would be a remarkable outcome for a cycle that, historically, draws far fewer voters than a presidential year. The enthusiasm appears to be cutting across geography and demographics, though the numbers are not uniform everywhere.

Texas and Key States Lead the Surge

An Associated Press analysis found early voting was up 74 percent in Texas compared to the same point in 2022, while Kansas had more than doubled its total of early ballots. The story in Texas's most populous county is especially striking. More than half a million people cast a ballot in Harris County since early voting opened, about 1 in 5 of the county's registered voters — and no midterm in county records since 1998 has started faster.

Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio have also seen increases of more than 30 percent in early in-person and mail voting. Nationally, the split between voting methods is remarkably close. As of the latest count, roughly 15.2 million mail-in votes and 15.9 million in-person early votes have been cast nationally, with seven days remaining until Election Day.

A Quiet Shift Away From Mail Voting

Buried beneath the headline numbers is a meaningful trend: voters in parts of the South are increasingly choosing to show up in person rather than trust the mail. In Georgia, roughly 95% of early votes have been cast in person, while mail ballot requests have fallen more than 45% from 2022. North Carolina has recorded 1.5 million in-person early votes against only about 60,000 mail ballots returned — a lopsided ratio that reflects a broader wariness about the mail-in process.

That wariness has real roots. Voters should be aware that the date on a ballot's postmark may not match the day it was dropped in a mailbox or collected by a letter carrier, because transportation changes can mean mail does not reach the processing facility where postmarks are applied on the same day it is mailed. North Carolina is one of five states that have eliminated their postmark grace period since 2023 , meaning a ballot that misses the deadline simply doesn't count. Local election officials have been candid about the uncertainty. One county elections director put it plainly: "When we mail a ballot to a person, it is out of our hands as far as when it will get to them and then when it will get back to us."

Who's Voting — and What It Could Mean

University of Florida Election Lab researcher Michael McDonald said the early-voting data is "clearly showing" that Hispanics are "voting at unprecedented numbers," and he is also seeing higher levels of early-voting participation by Black voters in the handful of states that report race and ethnicity data. On the partisan side, data shows that registered Democrats have cast more votes than registered Republicans in reporting states — 45.1% of early voters were registered Democrats compared with 30.7% Republicans. Still, analysts caution against reading too much into those figures. Early voting totals measure participation, not candidate support, and a higher number of ballots cast does not automatically indicate an advantage for either political party.

What the numbers do confirm is that American voters are treating this midterm with unusual urgency. Whether that energy translates into a decisive outcome on November 3 remains to be seen — but with roughly 30 million votes already locked in, the electorate is already speaking loudly before a single Election Day poll opens its doors.