Federal Forecast Warns Most of America Faces a Warmer-Than-Normal Fall

Summer May Stick Around Longer Than You'd Like

If you were hoping for an early taste of sweater weather, federal forecasters have some unwelcome news. A seasonal outlook released by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center on August 20, 2026, shows most of the country is expected to see warmer-than-average weather between September and November. For the vast majority of Americans, fall 2026 may feel a lot more like a lingering summer than a classic autumn.

The long-range forecast shows all but a few states leaning toward hotter-than-normal temperatures, with the Pacific Northwest most likely to see above-average weather. That region also faces a troubling secondary consequence: the Southwest and Southeast are more likely to see above-average rain, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are more likely to be dry. Less rainfall combined with above-average heat is a recipe for an extended wildfire season across the Pacific Northwest — a region already no stranger to that threat.

El Niño Is the Engine Driving It All

The force behind this forecast is a rapidly intensifying El Niño. National forecasters say the odds that the 2026–2027 El Niño will reach the highest strength level — often called a "super" El Niño — are now higher than 90%. The climate phenomenon has slowly gained steam since it officially started earlier this summer and is expected to reach maximum strength in late fall or early winter. That would make its effects on weather patterns increasingly pronounced as the season progresses.

NOAA's August 2026 update gives the event a 90% chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter, up from 81% in July, and a 69% chance of breaking all records since 1950. The consequences extend beyond just temperature. Other impacts of El Niño on fall weather include suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic and contributing to more high-tide flooding on the West Coast. Elevated sea levels along the West Coast can cause high tides and strong surf to ride higher and push much further inland than normal.

The Ohio Valley Gets a Shrug

Not every part of the country comes with a confident prediction. The future is murkier for a handful of states. Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia have about equal chances of seeing a warm fall, a cool fall, and an average fall. For residents of the Ohio Valley, the honest answer from forecasters is simply: we don't know. Typically, El Niño produces warmer, dry weather up north and in the Ohio Valley, while the southern half of the country usually gets a wetter winter with more rain and snow — but the exact dividing line moves year to year, depending on the position of the jet stream.

Hawaii has a different outlook. Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and the Big Island are most likely to see above-normal temperatures this fall, before shifting to a cooler winter season in early 2027.

The Almanacs Weigh In — With Caveats

The NOAA outlook wasn't the only seasonal forecast making the rounds this week. Both the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac also released their fall predictions. The Old Farmer's Almanac paints a notably different picture from NOAA, calling for a warm interior wrapped in cooler weather, with warmer-than-average conditions settling over the nation's interior from the Northern Plains through the Heartland and into the Deep South, while most of the eastern United States and the Pacific Coast are expected to be cooler than average.

How much should you trust these almanac forecasts? That depends on which source you consult. The Old Farmer's Almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate, but independent research tells a different story. University of Illinois professor John Walsh tested the almanac's long-range predictions over a five-year period and found it was only 50.7% accurate on monthly temperatures and 51.9% accurate on precipitation forecasts — about the same success rate as flipping a coin. To further complicate matters this year, the Almanac's analog-based forecasting method, which compares current solar and climate patterns to historical precedents, has no adequate historical analog to draw from at this magnitude of El Niño strength. With a potentially record-breaking climate event reshaping familiar weather patterns, even the most seasoned seasonal forecasters are navigating uncharted territory.