Federal Regulators Open Probe Into Betting Markets That Wager on What People Say

A White House Scandal Sparks a Broader Reckoning

President Trump's longtime teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, is under investigation by federal regulators over potential insider trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi. The allegation is striking in its specificity: Perez is suspected of profiting off his access to the president's prepared remarks on a type of betting known as "mention markets," where people wager on words and expressions the president will or will not say during public events. It's the kind of scheme that sounds almost too clever to be real — and it has now triggered a sweeping federal inquiry into an entire category of online betting.

Perez won more than $100,000 on such trades, according to sources. He has been cooperating with the investigation, and the CFTC has discussed terms of a settlement with him, which could include returning the profits from the trades. Kalshi froze Perez's account before the profits, which amounted to more than $90,000, were taken off the platform.

What Are "Mention Markets" — and Why Do They Matter?

Federal regulators have launched a review of so-called "mention markets" on prediction market sites, where bettors wager millions of dollars on the word choice of everyone from President Trump to soccer sportscasters. These markets include contracts that allow traders to wager on whether a specific word or phrase will be said during public events such as speeches, broadcasts, or corporate earnings calls. It's a fast-growing corner of the prediction market world — and one that regulators are now eyeing with deep suspicion.

The president's unpredictable and digressive speaking style can make for highly volatile trading on mention markets, where the odds of Trump uttering a particular word or phrase fluctuate drastically, with traders trying to forecast what subject he may veer to next. That volatility, it turns out, is also what makes these markets a potential goldmine for anyone with advance knowledge of a speaker's prepared remarks — and a nightmare for regulators trying to keep the playing field level.

The Regulatory Crackdown Takes Shape

In response, Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the U.S., has removed all mention markets from its betting offerings for sports as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pursues its inquiry. The CFTC's concern is rooted in a foundational rule: prediction market operators must affirm that the market cannot be "readily susceptible to manipulation," inviting bad actors or insider traders to profit by rigging a market. There is growing concern among Kalshi's lawyers and federal regulators that betting on certain kinds of speaking events runs against this principle, since the very nature of some markets attracts possible manipulators.

A source with knowledge of the probe said "these mention markets are not popular across the political aisle" and that they are "potentially very easy to manipulate, so the CFTC is taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense." Spokespeople at Kalshi and the CFTC declined to comment. Meanwhile, Polymarket, Kalshi's main competitor, also offers mention markets, but only on its popular overseas site, which is not regulated by the CFTC.

A Booming Industry Faces a Defining Moment

Others have been under investigation beyond Perez, including former Republican congressman George Santos, who investigators say pumped up a Kalshi market by claiming he would attend Trump's 2026 State of the Union address, only to cash out on a "no" trade when he skipped it. Two Polymarket customers were also charged earlier this year, including a Google software engineer accused of betting on search results and a U.S. soldier allegedly placing wagers about the ouster of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The CFTC is also conducting an extensive investigation into Polymarket.

Kalshi bans insider trading on its platforms and has taken steps throughout 2026 to crack down on speculators using material, nonpublic information to trade on its markets, recently instituting new requirements for traders in certain markets to submit details on their employment status. Whether those safeguards will be enough to satisfy regulators — or whether mention markets survive in any form — is now the central question facing an industry that has grown explosively but is clearly outpacing its own guardrails.