Gun Deaths Are Falling Sharply Even as Gun Sales Hit Historic Highs

A Paradox in the Data

America's relationship with guns has never been more contradictory. Gun violence deaths are plummeting to lows not seen in over a decade — and yet, Americans are buying firearms at a pace that has shocked even industry insiders. The two trends are colliding in real time, forcing researchers, lawmakers, and everyday citizens to grapple with a question that has no easy answer: What is actually driving the decline, and will it last?

Shooting deaths and injuries remain at historic lows in the United States. Data from the Gun Violence Archive shows 6,458 shooting deaths and 11,781 shooting injuries in the first six months of 2026. To put that in perspective, data from the Gun Violence Archive shows 3,103 shooting deaths in Q1 2026 alone — the lowest figure for the first quarter in the last dozen years. That's a decline of almost 500 shooting deaths from the same period in 2025, and vastly below the Q1 figures from 2021–2023, which topped 4,600 shooting deaths.

Gun Sales Are Surging — But Not Evenly

The drop in violence is happening alongside a dramatic surge in gun purchases. Gun violence is down, significantly, as gun sales are ticking up for the first time in years. Nationally, there were 1,123,006 adjusted background checks in June 2026, an 11.7% increase over June 2025, with Virginia and Rhode Island posting some of the largest gains.

The reason? Pending legislation. Rhode Island, where a ban on assault-style weapons took effect on July 1, 2026, saw gun sales climb 86 percent higher in the first six months of the year than in 2025. Virginia told a similar story: Virginia, where a suite of gun safety laws including a currently paused ban on assault-style weapons were signed by Governor Abigail Spanberger, saw its gun sales soar 73 percent this year, with 117,802 sales in June 2026 — the highest of any state, despite Virginia ranking 12th in population. The pattern is familiar — when restrictions loom, buyers rush to beat the deadline.

Mass Shootings: A Mixed Picture

The U.S. recorded a slight increase in mass shootings through the first two quarters of 2026, with 206 mass shootings according to the Gun Violence Archive — up from 193 last year, though down from the post-pandemic years when the number exceeded 300 multiple times. The Fourth of July period underscored the ongoing danger. On July Fourth, there were 139 shootings in the United States, resulting in 35 deaths and 187 injuries, excluding perpetrators. Even though the holiday endured less gun violence compared to last year, mass shootings took place in Mississippi, New York, and South Carolina over the weekend.

While mass shootings attract significant media attention, the data shows the daily toll of gun violence is a far bigger killer — mass shootings accounted for just 3.2 percent of shooting deaths tracked by the Gun Violence Archive in 2026. The vast majority of gun deaths happen quietly, one at a time, far from the headlines. Gun violence typically peaks in the warmer months, as more people are outside and intermingling, providing opportunities for potential conflict — and researchers have warned that as the climate warms, violence could surge as well.

What Comes Next

Gun violence in the U.S. increased substantially through 2020 and 2021, then began declining in 2022 — and while the rate of decline was slow at first, it began falling more sharply in 2024 and into 2025. Provisional data from 2025 showed an additional 15% decline in gun violence death totals, with the Council on Criminal Justice projecting a rate of 4.0 per 100,000. The question now is whether 2026 can sustain and deepen that momentum.

The surge in gun sales also comes as the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear challenges to state bans on so-called assault weapons, including cases involving Illinois and Connecticut. That ruling, expected in the coming term, could reshape the legal landscape across dozens of states. The contradiction at the heart of this moment — fewer people dying, more guns being bought, and landmark legal battles on the horizon — means the gun violence debate in America is far from settled. The data offers cautious hope, but the policies that will define the next chapter are still being written.