New Research Pinpoints Which American Regions Would Lose Power in a Catastrophic Solar Storm

A Storm That Could Cost Billions — Every Single Day

A rare and massive solar storm could leave millions of Americans without power, with the East Coast facing widespread potential for grid failure and the U.S. economy sustaining $1.5 billion to $2 billion in losses per day. That's the stark conclusion of a new study led by George Mason University researchers Ed Oughton and Dennies Bor, published September 4 in the journal AGU Advances, which maps out the precise vulnerabilities of the U.S. electric grid when confronted with a 1-in-150-year or 1-in-250-year geomagnetic storm comparable to the historic Carrington Event of 1859.

The study builds directly on lessons from May 2024's Gannon storm, a geomagnetic event roughly three times weaker than the legendary 1859 Carrington Event but still the first severe solar storm to truly test a world full of satellites, digital infrastructure, and a modern power grid. It was a warning shot. The real thing would be something else entirely.

Where You Live Could Determine Whether Your Lights Stay On

The risk differs sharply by region, based in part on geology and location. The East Coast and Northern Plains are the most susceptible to solar shocks because the underlying bedrock is highly resistive — it doesn't allow electric currents to dissipate into the Earth's core. Think of it like a drain that's been sealed shut. The energy has nowhere to go, so it surges into the power lines above instead.

As solar particles flow through Earth's poles, high latitudes are generally more exposed to geomagnetic disturbances. Because every state in the eastern U.S. draws from a unified grid interconnection, a localized voltage problem — say, in Maine — that goes unchecked early enough can ripple southward all the way to Washington, D.C. The Texas grid, which operates largely within the state, functions separately. That isolation, often criticized as a vulnerability in other contexts, could actually work in Texas's favor during a solar catastrophe.

Don't Panic — But Don't Look Away Either

Industry experts dismiss multi-year doomsday scenarios as unrealistic. Mark Olson, reliability assessment manager for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), notes that transformers are far more resilient than past reports assumed, and that the primary danger lies in voltage instability and circuit overloads rather than permanent transformer destruction. That's somewhat reassuring. But "not years-long" is a far cry from "no problem."

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics geophysicist Anna Kelbert, an outside researcher with her own background studying space weather impacts on electrical grids, reviewed the findings and offered a stark assessment: "This nationwide analysis shows that we are currently ill-prepared to face a major magnetic storm, and that the societal impacts would be catastrophic."

Finance and real estate, education and recreation, and professional services would bear the largest share of economic losses during a major grid failure event. In other words, a severe solar storm wouldn't just turn off the lights — it would grind the broader economy to a halt.

The Clock Is Unpredictable

No one knows when the next big storm will hit. While the most severe geomagnetic storms are labeled as once-in-a-century or rarer, these events don't follow a fixed schedule. "That timing only averages out on very long timescales," said Anna Kelbert of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. The Carrington Event itself wasn't predicted. Neither was the Gannon storm until forecasters spotted a massive sunspot just days before impact.

Researchers note that future work should examine cascading power grid dynamics and multi-hazard interactions — for example, if a geomagnetic storm were to hit during a heat wave or hurricane. That layered scenario is precisely the kind of compounding crisis that emergency planners fear most. The new research doesn't offer easy solutions, but it does something arguably more valuable: it tells us exactly where to look — and where to start preparing.