Iran War Drives Gas Prices to Highest Levels of Trump Presidency

A Divided Nation Finds Common Ground at the Gas Pump

It seems a country divided on so many fronts is finding common ground in pain at the pump, where the cost of the Iran war is hitting Americans squarely in the wallet and aggravating people across the political spectrum. Francisco Castillo, a 43-year-old factory worker who voted for President Donald Trump, stood alongside his son's Ford pickup truck at a central Iowa gas station, expressing his disappointment: "I thought that he was going to bring some of those things back." Now, he said, "He said he was going to bring gas down, but the war in Iran is now making everything worse."

The price tracker GasBuddy reported on Monday that the average price of gas in the US has risen by 51 cents per gallon over the last week. U.S. oil prices went on to hit a high of $119.50 on Monday, and the national average gasoline price topped $3.50 a gallon as of Tuesday, up 21% from a month ago, according to AAA. The AAA national average for regular gasoline has surged to the highest level of either of President Donald Trump's terms in the White House.

A Quinnipiac poll conducted over the weekend found about half of registered voters oppose the U.S. military action against Iran while about 4 in 10 support it. The vast majority of Democrats were against it (89%), the vast majority of Republicans for it (85%) and independents against it (60%). Overall, three-quarters were concerned about the war raising gas and oil prices.

Personal Stories from Across America

In Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, Vivian Knight, 53, is hoping her fill-up last week will last her a month. She is a former exterminator out on disability. "If I had to go to work or something like that, gas prices would be ridiculous," she said. Speaking of Trump, she said "he kind of starts some problems that really don't need to be started," and she puts the Iran war in that category.

Similarly, she cut her order for home heating oil by half because that cost is up, too. "I look at the prices of oil in the past and the stupid war, how did we — how did anybody — think that that was not going to impact oil?" she asked. At a gas station in Goleta, California, 72-year-old Bjorn Birmir said, "I'm not too worried myself because I have a hybrid car and ride my bike. But for people in general, it will make life more expensive. Prices are already high, and it will make them even higher."

The saga will have no effect on how Joey Perillo, 74, will vote in November. "The gas price could have gone down to two cents a gallon and I'd vote against him," said the volunteer firefighter, retired actor and political independent from Yardley, Pennsylvania.

Economic Ripple Effects Beyond the Pump

The price of crude oil increased from about $67 per barrel before the war began on February 28 to nearly $97 on Monday, as the conflict snarls production and transport in one of the most energy-rich regions on earth. Oil temporarily passed $100 per barrel on Sunday before slightly easing back. The war with Iran has sent oil prices higher for two primary reasons: a near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and a slowdown in oil production in the Middle East. Iran controls the north side of the strait, a narrow waterway that is the main shipping route for crude from oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the rest of the world.

Rising oil prices have a direct and immediate impact on consumer costs, and not only at the gas pump. An immediate spike in gasoline prices strains household budgets and also raises the cost of shipping, airline tickets, and products that rely on oil-based inputs. The increase in oil, gas and diesel prices raises the transportation costs faced by businesses, including grocery stores, which may face pressure to raise the price of food and other items to account for the cost increases if the situation continues.

Political Calculations and Future Outlook

Many GOP lawmakers say the conflict will be short-lived and that the roughly 50-cent-per-gallon increase at the pump will not last long. "The public understands the necessity of what we're doing," Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told reporters on Monday. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., insisted the higher prices at the pump would be a "blip," saying "It will take a couple of weeks, but gas prices will come back down."

Affordability was already Democrats' central midterm message, and now the cost of President Trump's unpopular war is on display