US Murder Rate Heads Toward a 126-Year Low as Crime Plunges Across the Board

Numbers That Haven't Been Seen in Generations

Crime rates in large American cities continued to fall in the first half of 2026, with homicides down 18% from the same period in 2025 and 51% since the most recent peak in 2022, likely pushing the national homicide rate to a new historic low. That's not a small statistical blip — across 30 cities with homicide data, killings fell 18 percent during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year, translating to 215 fewer people murdered in just six months.

On July 23, the Council on Criminal Justice released its 2026 mid-year crime trends report, which found that homicide rates dropped by 18 percent across 30 American cities in the first half of 2026, when compared to the same period in 2025. The Council noted there is no single or easy explanation for the broad drop in crime, and that it likely reflects a combination of demographic, behavioral, and public policy changes that have affected homicide and other offenses in different ways.

Across-the-Board Declines in Every Major Crime Category

The study examined patterns for 13 crime types in 36 cities and found that reported levels of 9 of 13 offenses were lower in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2025, with reported carjacking incidents seeing the largest drop at 47%. Motor vehicle thefts are down 20%, and robberies are down 17%. Residential burglaries are down 13%.

Compared with peaks over the past nine years, homicides are down 51%, carjackings 73%, residential burglaries 56%, and motor vehicle thefts 51%. When compared to the first half of 2019, the year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic onset, homicides, aggravated assault, gun assault, sexual assault, domestic violence, robbery, and carjacking crimes were all lower in the first six months of 2026. The breadth of these declines — spanning nearly every type of crime, in cities of vastly different sizes and political leanings — makes the trend difficult to dismiss.

DHS Credits Deportations of Criminal Aliens

The Department of Homeland Security wasted no time claiming credit. DHS credited recent deportations of violent criminal illegal immigrants as a major reason behind a sharp drop in several categories of violent crime. DHS emphasized that many of those deported had repeated illegal re-entries or long criminal records, arguing this bolstered the logic behind stepped-up removals, and framed these removals as practical steps to reduce violent recidivism tied to illegal entry and presence.

The agency highlighted specific cases to drive the point home. Among those recently deported was Melvin Mauricio Valencia Gil, a criminal illegal alien from El Salvador and Latin Kings gang member deported on July 21, whose criminal history includes convictions for homicide, assault, and possession of a weapon. Hector Lopez Mendoza, a Surenos gang member from Mexico, was deported on July 27 with convictions for homicide and aggravated assault with a gun. The White House touted the report as evidencing "extraordinary progress" in delivering on one of President Trump's core promises to restore law and order.

A Debate Over What's Really Driving the Drop

Not everyone agrees on the cause. The researchers behind the CCJ report were careful to draw a clear line between data and policy conclusions. Co-authors Ernesto Lopez and Bobby Boxerman wrote that their report "is not evidence of the success or failure of any policy or practice," stating it "simply documents recent crime trends from a sample of large U.S. cities." CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb noted that "murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity."

Several possibilities were highlighted as having potential links to declining crime rates, including changes in criminal justice strategies, technological advances, and shifts in society and culture. Whatever the full explanation turns out to be, the lived reality for millions of Americans is a measurably safer country than existed just a few years ago. If these trends hold through year-end, 2026 could mark a genuine turning point in the nation's long and complicated relationship with violent crime — one that will fuel policy debates, and political arguments, for years to come.