Texas Senate Primary Shatters Records With Historic $110 Million Spending

Record-Breaking Financial Battle

The Texas Senate primary has become the most expensive in U.S. history with more than $110 million being spent on advertising , setting a new benchmark for political spending in state races. Tuesday's Texas Senate Republican primary will provide the first glimpse of where voters stand after nearly a year of bitter competition and over $95 million spent in a contest between towering figures in Texas — and national — politics . Approximately $88 million has been spent in campaign advertising favoring Republicans competing in the race, compared to just under $22 million for the two Democrats in the race .

Sitting Sen. John Cornyn (R) has led the pack in ad spending, with a total of $64 million spent on advertising supporting his re-election campaign . Meanwhile, spending for Talarico reached $21.5 million, compared to just $4.5 million for U.S. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett . Nearly half of the money being spent on the Texas Senate primary is coming in the final weeks leading up to election day, with AdImpact reports $48.6 million will be spent on political advertising when the dust settles on the final month of the primary .

Republican Primary Showdown

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt are competing to be the Republican nominee come November, with stakes that will be felt across Texas and in Washington, where the GOP political establishment has mounted a massive campaign to keep Cornyn among its ranks . Among likely primary voters, 36% preferred Paxton, 34% Cornyn, and 26% Hunt .

Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a fifth six-year term; however, Cornyn is being challenged in the Republican primary by Representative Wesley Hunt and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton . Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race . While recent public polling has found that Paxton is likely to finish in the top spot Tuesday, with Cornyn and Hunt vying for second place, polling suggests Cornyn and Paxton are most likely to advance to a runoff .

Trump, who has said he considers all three to be friends, has not endorsed in the race. Texas' Senate primary is one of the only contests in which the president has not weighed in . Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents. This led many Republicans to publicly back Cornyn, while Senate Republican leaders urged Donald Trump to endorse him .

Democratic Primary Competition

For the first time this century, two Democratic heavyweights with national profiles — U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin — are battling for the party's nomination, making for an intensely competitive race that has drawn massive attention, dollars and stakes . The two-week University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll, which concluded Feb. 16, shows the congresswoman leading Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D), 56 percent to 44 percent, among likely Democratic primary voters in Texas .

In a year that Democrats see as a prime opportunity to finally flip Texas — amid flagging approval for the second Trump administration, a vicious Senate primary on the Republican side and the potential to face scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton in November — Texas Democrats are waging a dogfight primary in the contest for U.S. Senate . The New York Times' J. David Goodman described the primary as a contrast of styles, saying Crockett "appeared to be betting that her brand of combative, progressive politics could win over Texas voters in large part by driving Democratic enthusiasm and turnout in the state's major urban centers," while Talarico "[was] seeking to energize Democrats while also courting some disaffected Trump voters" .

High Stakes for November

Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups . While Republican turnout is higher than typical for a primary, Jones says Democratic participation is breaking records for a non-presidential election year .

The massive spending reflects the national implications of this race. The heavy spending in Texas is a preview of the money that is expected to flood this year's midterm elections across the U.S. with control of Congress at stake . Cornyn and the