Lula Wins Historic Fourth Term in Brazil, Defeating Bolsonaro's Son in Runoff

A Political Comeback for the Ages

Few political careers have survived what Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's has. Jailed, convicted, exonerated, and now re-elected — the 80-year-old Brazilian president pulled off one of the most remarkable electoral comebacks in modern democratic history on Sunday, October 25. In a stunning political comeback, Lula was elected president of Brazil according to official results from Sunday's runoff election, with more than 96% of the votes counted.

Lula secured more than 51% of the vote, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who received more than 48%. The margin was razor-thin, but the symbolism was enormous. The result marks a historic moment in Brazil's democratic era — since democracy was restored in 1989, no candidate who failed to win the first round of voting had gone on to win the presidency in the second round.

The Bolsonaro Dynasty Comes Up Short

The 80-year-old leftist president won a record fourth non-consecutive term, overcoming a first-round defeat to right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro. The race was, in many ways, a family dynasty showdown. Flávio, 45, had campaigned on closer ties with President Trump and pledged to pardon his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election defeat.

Lula came into Sunday's runoff as an underdog — while he had narrowly led pre-election polls, the first round of voting on October 4 showed him trailing Bolsonaro. Lula thanked the Brazilian people after his election win, but Bolsonaro told reporters he would not accept the results and said they should be annulled. The refusal to concede echoes a now-familiar playbook in right-wing politics globally — and raises real questions about what comes next.

What Lula Inherits — and What It Means

Lula is set to govern from 2027 to 2030, facing a Congress where Bolsonaro's Liberal Party holds the largest bench in decades, and with a substantial public debt that he would need to stabilize. The economy will be his most immediate battlefield. Investors are bracing for heightened volatility across Brazilian markets following Lula's victory, as the right-wing Bolsonaro was seen as more likely to push for fiscal austerity and deregulation — the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF plunged nearly 20% in overnight trading following the election results.

The election has also been shaped by the impact of U.S. tariffs, climate change, and the Amazon rainforest, 60% of which is in Brazil. Lula's victory blocks a rightward shift in Latin America that U.S. President Donald Trump has backed. In recent years, right-wing leaders have swept presidential races in nearby countries like Peru, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia, and Ecuador — many riding a wave of anti-incumbent energy and enjoying support from Trump. Brazil now stands as a notable counterweight.

Looking Ahead

A former union leader for metalworkers, Lula will be sworn in on January 5, 2027, when he will beat his own record as the oldest Brazilian president to take the oath of office since the country's return to democracy. Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, will be among the oldest sitting leaders in the Americas, alongside President Trump and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, both 80.

The road ahead is steep. A hostile Congress, jittery markets, surging federal debt, and a population frustrated with the cost of living all await him. But Lula has beaten longer odds before — and the world will be watching to see whether Brazil's most enduring political figure can deliver on a fourth act that no one in Brazilian democratic history has ever attempted.