Mexico's Historic Year Brings Judicial Elections and Trump Tensions

Sheinbaum's First Year Marked by Constitutional Changes

President Claudia Sheinbaum completed her first year in office in 2025, a year that came with no shortage of challenges for Mexico's first woman leader. It was a year of significant change, as Donald Trump's return to the White House had a considerable impact on Mexico, while the Mexican judiciary was overhauled via the country's first-ever judicial elections.

June 1 was a historic day in Mexico — the country's first-ever judicial elections were held — but it was apparently just an ordinary Sunday for the vast majority of Mexican voters, as turnout was just 13%. President Sheinbaum's praise of the vote as a "complete success" stood in stark contrast with the paltry 13 percent voter turnout, the lowest recorded participation rate since Mexico became a multiparty democracy in the late 1990s, and one of the lowest in Latin America. Despite widespread criticism and documented irregularities, the elections selected nearly 2,700 judges across the federal system.

Electoral observers documented the prevalence of cheat sheets—partisan guides instructing voters exactly which boxes to tick for the party's candidates—with Morena being the main offender. Some versions—modeled after communion wafers—were designed to be eaten before observers could see them in a bid to eliminate the evidence of rule-breaking.

Trump's Return Creates Trade Turbulence

The return of Donald Trump to the White House in late January marked the commencement of a new era in Mexico-U.S. relations — one marked by unpredictability and uncertainty as well as deepening security cooperation and economic interdependence. The 47th U.S. president took Mexico on a tariff rollercoaster ride in 2025, imposing new duties on a range of Mexican goods, lifting some soon after, threatening to raise tariffs tied to fentanyl trafficking, and offering some concessions to the United States' southern neighbor.

The Mexican government has attempted to stave off, or at least mitigate U.S. tariffs, including through negotiation and the deployment of 10,000 National Guard troops to the northern border early in the year. Less than a week before a 25% U.S. tariff on all imports from Mexico was due to take effect, and as the Mexican government faced pressure from the Trump administration to do more to combat transnational drug trafficking, the Sheinbaum administration sent 29 cartel figures, including notorious drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, to the United States.

Ahead of the review process, Sheinbaum, Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney found the opportunity to discuss trade during a meeting at the FIFA World Cup draw in Washington, D.C., earlier this month. A first bilateral in-person meeting between Sheinbaum and Trump appears likely to happen in 2026, providing the two leaders another opportunity to build on their rapport and perhaps iron out the trade and security issues that tarnished ties in 2025.

Violence Declines Amid Ongoing Security Challenges

At Tuesday's morning press conference, officials reported homicides declined 27.9% in 2025 compared to 2024, with an average of 66.1 murders per day in the first 10 months. The Sheinbaum administration has succeeded in further lowering the homicide rate, although there have been questions about the accuracy of the data showing the reduction.

Among the many murders perpetrated in Mexico this year, the one that attracted the most attention was the brazen assassination of Carlos Manzo, the mayor of Uruapan, Michoacán. The Nov. 1 assassination of the outspoken anti-crime crusader shocked a nation that has been somewhat numbed by many years of relentless violence, triggering protests and precipitating the creation of a major "peace and justice" plan for Michoacán.

While the reduction is good news at face value, the fact remains that almost 22,000 lives were lost to violent crime between January and November. There is no doubt that the federal government still has a lot of work to do in a country where insecurity is the No. 1 concern of many citizens.

Natural Disasters and Economic Pressures

The most impactful natural disaster this year was, however, the severe flooding that affected the states of Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla, San Luis Potosí and Querétaro in October. The floods claimed at least 83 lives and an additional 17 people remained missing long after the floodwaters had receded. The federal government faced criticism over its initial response, with some flood-affected citizens asserting that authorities acted too slowly and provided insufficient assistance.

Industrial activity declined 1.8% in the first nine months of 2025, the worst performance since 2009 excluding the pandemic. Construction declined 2.7% annually,