NATO Leaders Converge in Ankara With Billions on the Line and Ukraine Under Fire

A Summit Built on Urgency

Heads of state and government from NATO's 32 members are meeting for a summit in Ankara, Turkey, on July 7–8, 2026. The timing could hardly be more charged. The Ankara Summit is expected to center on three issues: defense investment, defense industry, and support for Ukraine. And with a war still raging on Europe's eastern edge, none of those issues are abstract.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte previewed the summit by explaining that it will focus on delivery — allies are expected to demonstrate how they are transforming commitments made at The Hague last year into stronger armed forces, increased defense production, and more capabilities needed to defend the alliance. NATO allies are also expected to announce new initiatives to bolster defense industrial capacity across the alliance and tens of billions of dollars in related new defense contracts.

The Race to 5 Percent

The 2026 agenda builds on the commitment member states made at last year's summit in The Hague to increase annual defense spending to 5 percent of their GDP by 2035, up from the 2 percent benchmark set in 2014. That shift represents a seismic change in how Western nations think about military funding — and how much of their economies they're willing to dedicate to it.

Just one year into a 10-year project, European allies and Canada are already investing around 4% of their GDP in defense and security, according to Secretary General Rutte. The progress is uneven, though. Poland currently leads the alliance, allocating about 4.48% of GDP to defense. Lithuania follows at 4%, while Latvia, Estonia, and Norway also rank among the nations with spending closest to the targeted 5% mark. Several NATO members, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Canada, remain closer to the alliance's 2014 benchmark of 2%.

The Trump administration has urged NATO allies to accelerate defense spending ahead of the summit, warning that countries moving too slowly could face consequences, with senior U.S. officials saying President Trump expects member states to move toward spending 5% of GDP on defense as quickly as possible instead of waiting until the 2035 target. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker said some allies had made significant progress while others continued to trail, noting that "Poland, the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries lead the way," and adding that Trump expects every member "to step up immediately."

Ukraine's Urgent Plea

The backdrop to the summit's defense spending debates is a brutal one. On July 2, Russia launched a massive assault on Ukraine's capital. At least 18 people were killed and more than 90 injured after a large-scale Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv, with President Zelenskyy saying Russia launched more than 70 missiles and around 500 drones in the overnight assault. More than 20 sites across Kyiv were hit, including residential apartment blocks, a hotel, a research institute, and an ambulance station.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for additional Western air defense support, particularly U.S.-made Patriot systems, which Ukraine says are critical for protecting cities from missile attacks. As Russia's war against Ukraine continues, allies are expected to continue providing unprecedented levels of military assistance, with the Ankara Summit focused on helping the country meet its urgent defensive needs and ensuring that allied military assistance remains sustainable for the long term.

What Comes Next

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while in Turkey for the NATO summit, to make a renewed push to end the war in Ukraine. Secretary General Rutte has expressed support for Trump administration-led efforts to negotiate a peace agreement and has emphasized that any peace settlement should ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin never again attempts to invade Ukraine.

Rutte has called for a "quantum leap" in NATO's defense capabilities in response to security threats posed by Russia, which he maintains could be ready to use military force against NATO by 2030. With billions in new contracts expected to be announced, concrete national spending plans on the table, and the war in Ukraine demanding real-time answers, the Ankara summit is less a diplomatic ceremony than a stress test — one that will reveal just how unified the alliance truly is when the pressure is highest.