US Military Takes Its Drug War Off the Water and Onto Land in Latin America

From Sea Strikes to Boots on the Ground

Hundreds of people have been killed in the year since the U.S. military began bombing boats accused of ferrying drugs off Latin America's Caribbean and Pacific coasts — and now the Trump administration says it is seeking to extend that lethal campaign to land, pursuing deals that would put U.S. forces on the ground in allied nations across the region. It is an escalation that marks a dramatic new chapter in America's long and complicated war on drugs.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth drew a sharp rhetorical line, saying, "Anywhere you traffic drugs or you threaten the American people or our partners, you are a target just like ISIS or al-Qaida," directly equating drug traffickers with the Islamic extremist groups that dominated U.S. national security priorities for decades. That comparison signals just how seriously — and militarily — Washington is now approaching the cartel threat.

A Coalition Takes Shape — With Cracks

Defense Secretary Hegseth announced during a visit to Panama on August 12 that Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras had agreed to allow the U.S. to carry out joint military operations against criminal groups on their soil, following Ecuador, which launched similar missions with the U.S. in March. The Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, the alliance underpinning this effort, now includes 19 countries.

Hegseth provided few details about what joint operations with Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras would look like. But in Colombia, where Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella took office this month, he raised the prospect of U.S. forces joining strikes against armed groups including the National Liberation Army, or ELN, Colombia's last major guerrilla group. Hegseth said de la Espriella had requested greater U.S. military involvement. Not every partner is on board, however. Guatemala's President Bernardo Arévalo denied agreeing to joint anti-drug operations, saying they would be illegal without congressional approval.

A notable outlier from the new U.S. anti-trafficking alliance is Mexico, a major source and transit point for fentanyl and other drugs entering the U.S. President Claudia Sheinbaum has cooperated closely with Washington on security but resisted mounting pressure for a U.S. military role in fighting cartels on Mexican soil. That resistance leaves a significant gap in the strategy, given Mexico's central role in the drug trade.

Critics Warn of Unintended Consequences

U.S. forces have killed more than 200 people in over 60 boat strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific over the past year. The strikes have faced questions over the evidence used to identify those targeted and their legality. Bringing that same approach onto land raises the stakes considerably — and the risks to civilian populations.

Critics warn the strategy risks civilian casualties, particularly in Colombia, where armed groups operate among civilian populations and often function as de facto authorities in areas beyond the state's reach. Rather than beating back those groups, military strikes are more likely to force them to adapt, said Jeremy McDermott, co-director of InSight Crime. McDermott posed the core dilemma plainly: "The U.S. bombs an ELN camp in Colombia or in Venezuela, what is the first thing the ELN are going to do? They're going to dismantle all their camps and move into the villages and towns."

Adding further complexity, the use of IEDs by criminal groups in Mexico has grown sharply — seizures rocketed from just three devices in 2020–2021 to 1,375 in 2022. These devices are increasingly paired with drones, which criminal groups across Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Panama have adopted to confront security forces, move goods, and intimidate communities. As cartels evolve their tactics, the question of whether a ground campaign can outpace them remains wide open.

What Comes Next

Observers question whether a more militarized approach would produce lasting security gains. Some analysts suggest the campaign may serve partly as a show of force, building on the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as the Trump administration seeks to offset foreign policy setbacks elsewhere.

As one defense analyst put it, "Ultimately, the United States will have to define what 'joint operations' means in each of these countries," warning it may discover "pretty quickly that this is something most governments — even governments on the right — are quite uncomfortable with." The Trump administration has shown no signs of pulling back. Whether allied governments — and their populations — will ultimately accept a permanent U.S. military footprint on their soil is the defining question that will shape this campaign for years to come.