Finn's Take· TL;DRVandenberg Space Force Base is experiencing a remarkable transformation, evolving from a single launch in 2020 to becoming SpaceX's busiest launch site . More than half of all of SpaceX's launches so far this year have lifted off from the California spaceport. Last year, it was less than 40 percent, and in 2024, it was one-third.
This shift represents more than just geographical redistribution. The bulk of SpaceX's Starlink missions will now depart from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, where Falcon 9s can launch from the same pad as often as every three or four days. The California site's rapid-fire launch schedule contrasts sharply with Florida operations, where the new norm at Cape Canaveral will average about one Falcon 9 launch per week .
Behind this operational shift lies a deliberate infrastructure strategy. SpaceX is transitioning the site at Kennedy, known as Launch Complex-39A, to launch Starships. LC-39A is out of the rotation for Falcon 9 launches, although it remains available for occasional flights of the more powerful triple-core Falcon Heavy. The company has also retired one of its two Florida-based seagoing landing platforms from service for future use as a transporter to ferry Starships and Super Heavy boosters from SpaceX's factory in South Texas to Florida .
These changes reflect broader ambitions. SpaceX is also building a second Starship production facility at the Kennedy Space Center. It is also pursuing plans to begin Starship flights from Florida before the plant is completed. The company is essentially preparing for a future where its massive Starship vehicle handles the heavy lifting while Falcon 9 serves more specialized roles.
While Vandenberg's ascendance captures attention, the Falcon 9 isn't disappearing. The rocket that made SpaceX the world's most successful space company will remain operational at least as long as the International Space Station. The retirement of the ISS, previously targeted for 2030, is now unlikely to occur before 2032. The Falcon 9 and Dragon capsule are the only US vehicles available to transport crews to and from the station.
However, the numbers tell a story of managed decline. Elon Musk's SpaceX conducted 165 launches with the Falcon 9 rocket (no Falcon Heavy missions) last year, up from 134 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches in 2024 and 96 Falcon flights in 2023. The company plans "maybe 140, 145-ish" Falcon launches in 2026, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell told Time earlier this year. "This year we'll still launch a lot, but not as much," she said.
The transition signals SpaceX's broader vision for space operations. Rather, it is a manifestation of SpaceX's eagerness to shift focus to the much larger Starship rocket, an enabler of what the company wants to do in space: missions to land on the Moon and Mars, orbital data centers, and next-gen Starlink. A single Starship launch could theoretically replace a dozen or more Falcon 9 Starlink missions. That would not reduce SpaceX's total launch count so much as redirect Falcon 9 capacity toward external customers — or accelerate Starlink buildout faster than the current cadence allows.
This reshuffling positions SpaceX for a two-tier future. Analysts say a two-track structure is taking shape, with Falcon 9 handling crew transport and national security missions, and Starship taking on ultra-large satellites and next-generation space infrastructure construction. As Vandenberg becomes the new epicenter of routine satellite deployment, Florida's role shifts toward hosting humanity's next giant leap into deep space exploration.