Trump Uses Record Crime Drop to Rally Support Before November Midterms

A Politically Charged Visit to Long Island

President Donald Trump is showcasing falling violent crime rates as evidence that his law-and-order agenda is working, seeking to shift attention away from economic concerns that have dented his approval ratings ahead of November's midterm elections. On Friday, August 14, he made his case in a setting tailor-made for the message.

Trump held a press conference at the Nassau County Police Academy in New York to promote the FBI's unreleased 2025 crime statistics report, which captures a precipitous decrease in violent crime, according to the White House. FBI Director Kash Patel and newly sworn-in Attorney General Todd Blanche joined the president at the event with police.

The Numbers Behind the Headlines

Trump touted an estimated 18.1% drop in murder and non-negligent manslaughter, an 18.5% drop in robberies, a 7.6% decrease in rapes, and a 7.2% decline in aggravated assault in 2025. Further, burglaries dropped by an estimated 15.8%, larceny decreased by 9.8%, and motor vehicle theft declined by 22.7%, all according to the FBI's soon-to-be-released 2025 Crime Statistics Report.

The trend has continued into 2026. An analysis of the Major Cities Chiefs Association's survey of 66 large U.S. communities found drops in violent crime in the first six months of 2026 compared to the same period last year — homicides fell 17.2%, robberies dropped 16.6%, rapes declined 6.2%, and aggravated assaults fell 5.7%, amounting to roughly 14,200 fewer reported violent crimes. Some cities have seen especially dramatic turnarounds: Washington, D.C. reported 46 homicides in the first half of 2026, down 43.9%, while homicides in Memphis fell 43.7% and 38.3% in Houston.

Credit Claimed, Credit Contested

Trump has taken credit for falling crime rates around the country, citing his immigration crackdown and deployment of the National Guard in cities across the U.S. since he began his second presidential term. The White House has been direct about its position: a Department of Justice spokesperson said, "Violent crime is falling because this administration is prosecuting it."

But independent researchers urge caution about giving any single administration full credit. Though Trump has taken credit for reducing overall crime in 2025, rates were already declining before he returned to office last January, and experts say it's at best too soon to tell if his administration has played a notable role in the drop. The Council on Criminal Justice noted that the decline has occurred across cities with different political leadership, policing strategies, economic conditions, and levels of federal involvement.

The Midterm Stakes

Crime has emerged as a significant issue in New York's governor's race, with both candidates claiming the better track record on public safety — and Trump is touting the issue as he faces low approval ratings on a number of other issues, including the economy and the Iran war. While many of Trump's recent swing-state speeches have focused on his tax breaks and economic policies, he often mentions his effort to curb crime by deploying the National Guard in Washington, New Orleans, and other Democrat-led cities.

With November's midterms approaching, the political calculus is clear. If the Council on Criminal Justice's reported 18% decline in murders across the nation's 30 largest cities during the first half of 2026 reflects the national trend, the U.S. murder rate could fall to roughly 3.25 per 100,000 this year — the lowest rate ever recorded. Whether voters credit the White House or broader societal forces, those are the kinds of numbers that can reshape a political conversation — and potentially an election.