September's Dismal Jobs Numbers Deal a Blow to Trump Before Midterms
Finn's Take· TL;DR- Fewer jobs created than expected in September, well below forecasts, with wage growth slowing despite persistent inflation pressures.
- Previous months' hiring revised downward significantly, revealing labor market softer longer than initially reported to Americans.
- Weak economic data before midterms hurts Trump politically as majority of Americans say economy worse than when he took office.
A Labor Market Running Out of Steam
With just 31 days until voters head to the polls, the U.S. economy handed the White House its worst possible pre-election headline. The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in September — nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, well below the 84,000 forecast. It's a number that's hard to spin, and almost impossible to ignore.
The latest jobs report — the final official employment snapshot before the midterm elections — also showed that recent months' hiring was weaker than previously thought, and that wage growth slowed, putting Americans' paychecks further behind the 8-ball at a time when inflation has accelerated. Wages grew by just 3 percent, marking the slowest annual wage increase in five years.
The data signals that employers are becoming much more selective about adding headcount — and companies don't necessarily need to be conducting mass layoffs to make the employment market more difficult. For millions of job seekers already navigating a sluggish market, that distinction offers little comfort.
The Numbers Behind the Numbers
In addition to the weakness in September, the August jobs count was revised lower to reflect a gain of 133,000, while July switched from a gain to a loss as payrolls fell by 10,000 — revisions that in total showed 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. That means the labor market has been softer for longer than Americans were initially told.
Through September, the economy has added an average of 68,000 jobs per month — stronger than last year, when fewer than 10,000 jobs were added per month, but the current pace of hiring is running well below pre-pandemic averages. Hiring fell across several sectors, including government, information, and financial activities, while job gains were concentrated in health care, construction, and manufacturing.
Government payrolls contracted by 17,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, though largely due to an influx of new members entering the labor force — a nuance that economists note, but that struggling workers on the ground are unlikely to find reassuring.
A Political Earthquake in the Making
Friday's jobs report caps a week of weakening economic data before the consequential midterm election on November 3. The timing couldn't be worse for Republicans. According to an AP-NORC poll released Thursday, 61 percent of Americans polled said the U.S. economy is worse off now than when Trump took office in January 2025.
President Trump is entering the November midterms with his lowest approval rating of his second term at 36%, and domestically, the main concerns of American voters remain centered on inflation, the economy, and jobs. Trump has been trying to change the narrative on the slumping economy — on Monday, he posted on Truth Social that "The United States has the BEST Employment Numbers in HISTORY." The September report makes that claim difficult to sustain.
As one economist put it: "When businesses are barely hiring and raises aren't keeping up with rising prices, it's a stalled economy — and working families are stuck in it."
What Comes Next
Markets rose off the report, as traders priced in a high probability that the Fed will stay put on interest rates when it meets later in October. That's a silver lining of sorts — weaker economic data reduces the chance of further rate hikes that could squeeze consumers and businesses even more.
Elections to the U.S. Congress will take place on November 3, 2026, with all 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats in the U.S. Senate up for election. Trump's approval rating leaves an 80% probability that the U.S. House of Representatives will shift to Democratic control, with the Senate facing a 50:50 chance of switching as well. September's jobs report may have just made those odds even steeper for the GOP. For voters whose wallets are already stretched thin, the data isn't just a statistic — it's a lived reality that could reshape the balance of power in Washington.