Shoplifting Is Falling but Retail Crime Is Getting Smarter and More Dangerous
Finn's Take· TL;DR- Shoplifting incidents fell 12.4% in 2025, but thieves shifted to sophisticated fraud schemes like phone scams and loyalty program exploitation.
- Retailers credit security investments—better cameras, locked merchandise, staff training—for reducing traditional theft, though organized crime remains a persistent threat.
- Violence and homelessness-related disruptions continue rising, prompting retailers to expand employee safety training and risk-intelligence technology investments nationwide.
A New Kind of Retail Crime Wave
For years, the image of retail crime was a shoplifter stuffing merchandise under a jacket. That picture is rapidly changing. Retailers are seeing a shift in criminal activity as traditional shoplifting begins to ease while fraud schemes and other forms of organized retail crime become more prevalent, according to the National Retail Federation's 2026 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence report. It's a development that sounds like good news on the surface — but the reality is far more complicated.
The Impact of Theft & Violence 2026 report found that retailers experienced a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decline in retail merchandise theft in 2025 compared with 2024, while other methods of external theft, fraud, and scams increased over the same period. The survey was conducted among senior loss prevention and security executives from February to April 2026, drawing responses from 66 retail companies representing 143 brands — collectively accounting for $1.7 trillion in annual sales, or about 31.6% of total retail sales.
Fraud Is the New Frontier for Organized Criminals
The 2026 report demonstrates a shift as criminals move beyond traditional shoplifting to more sophisticated external theft schemes, with retailers reporting higher rates of repeat offenders (50%), organized retail crime-related incidents (40%), and walkout or pushout theft (37%). These aren't opportunistic teenagers pocketing a candy bar — these are coordinated criminal operations exploiting every weakness they can find, both in stores and online.
Among the fastest-growing threats reported by retailers were phone scams, which rose for 69% of respondents, followed by loyalty fraud (51%) and gift card theft or fraud (42%). Think about what that means in practice: criminals are gaming loyalty programs, draining gift card balances, and running phone scams against retail employees and customers alike. "The number of shoplifting incidents has been declining in the last several years, but the amount stolen per incident has been increasing," said Marc Levin, the Council on Criminal Justice's chief policy counsel. Fewer crimes, but bigger hauls.
Security Investments Are Working — But Only Partially
The decline in shoplifting and merchandise theft can be attributed in part to retailers' ongoing efforts to evaluate, implement, and refine security measures designed to deter theft and reduce losses. Strategies like enhanced interior and exterior security systems, as well as store- and employee-specific safety protocols, have contributed to these improvements. In other words, locking up merchandise, installing better cameras, and training staff is actually paying off in the aisles.
"After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes," said NRF Vice President for Asset Protection and Retail Operations David Johnston. However, he added, "significant challenges remain as organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud."
Violence and Legislation Remain Critical Concerns
Violence remains a concern across the industry. Retailers reported ongoing increases in homelessness-related disruptions and guest-related incidents, prompting additional investments in workplace safety. Nearly three-quarters (72%) said they are expanding management training, 65% are increasing employee training, and 61% are investing in risk-intelligence technologies.
Following passage in the U.S. House of Representatives, the NRF is urging the U.S. Senate to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA), which would strengthen federal coordination and equip state and local law enforcement to better identify and investigate cross-jurisdictional and transnational retail crime groups. The stakes are high. Retail crime doesn't just hurt corporate bottom lines — it raises prices, strips shelves, and degrades the everyday shopping experience for millions of Americans. As criminals grow more sophisticated, the retailers, lawmakers, and law enforcement agencies trying to stop them will need to keep pace or risk falling dangerously behind.