Shoplifting Is Down but Retail Crime Is Far From Over — It Just Got Smarter
Finn's Take· TL;DR- Shoplifting incidents dropped 12.4% in 2025, but fraud schemes like phone scams and gift card theft surged significantly during same period.
- Organized retail crime evolved beyond simple theft, now combining digital fraud, cargo theft, and supply chain exploits that are harder for retailers to detect.
- Retailers strengthened physical security measures, but criminals adapted by shifting to sophisticated fraud targeting employees and exploiting digital vulnerabilities across retail operations.
The Threat Has Changed, Not Disappeared
For years, the image of retail crime was a shoplifter slipping merchandise under a coat. That picture is becoming outdated. Retail crime in the US is changing — while retailers report that shoplifting is becoming less of a concern, they are facing a growing wave of fraud that is harder to detect and can affect stores, e-commerce operations, and supply chains alike. The source of this warning? A sweeping new report from one of the country's most influential retail trade groups.
The National Retail Federation's 2026 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence report, produced in partnership with the Loss Prevention Research Council and sponsored by Sensormatic Solutions, draws on survey responses from 66 retail companies representing 143 brands and approximately $1.7 trillion in annual retail sales. That's nearly a third of all US retail sales — making the findings difficult to dismiss.
The Numbers Tell a Complicated Story
Retailers experienced a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decline in retail merchandise theft in 2025 compared with 2024 — but those decreases came as other methods of external theft, fraud, and scams increased over the same period. In other words, the good news comes with a significant asterisk.
Retailers reported increases in phone scams (69%), loyalty fraud (51%), gift card theft and fraud (42%), repeat offenders (50%), and organized retail crime incidents (40%). These aren't petty crimes of opportunity. The findings suggest that organized retail crime is evolving rather than disappearing — criminal groups are increasingly combining traditional theft with digital fraud, phone scams, cargo theft, and other schemes that exploit weaknesses across the retail business.
"The number of shoplifting incidents has been declining in the last several years, but the amount stolen per incident has been increasing," said Marc Levin, chief policy counsel at the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice. That distinction matters enormously. Fewer incidents doesn't mean less damage — it means criminals are becoming more calculated.
Why Shoplifting Is Dropping — and What's Filling the Gap
The decline in shoplifting and merchandise theft can be attributed in part to retailers' ongoing efforts to evaluate, implement, and refine security measures. Strategies like enhanced interior and exterior security systems, as well as store- and employee-specific safety protocols, have contributed to these improvements. Retailers have also strengthened their ability to analyze loss patterns and assess the effectiveness of various security measures.
The digital nature of these crimes presents new challenges for loss prevention teams who must now monitor digital channels as closely as physical storefronts. Supply chain vulnerabilities have also moved to the forefront of the discussion, with cargo theft identified as a significant issue that extends well beyond the point of sale. Phone scams specifically targeting store associates are a growing concern, adding a layer of complexity to internal security protocols as employees must now be wary of social engineering tactics in the workplace.
What Comes Next for Retailers and Lawmakers
NRF Vice President for Asset Protection and Retail Operations David Johnston acknowledged that "after years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize," but warned that "significant challenges remain as organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment, as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud."
The NRF is urging the US Senate to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, which the organization says would improve coordination among federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies to better combat organized retail crime networks. Criminals and organized theft groups continue to adapt, using more sophisticated and far-reaching tactics to exploit the retail environment — requiring retailers, law enforcement, and legislators to continue building out stronger collaboration against expanding criminal behavior and cross-jurisdictional activity. The battle against retail crime isn't winding down. It's simply moved to a new battlefield — and most shoppers will never see it coming.